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Wiser investment in education can help Viet Nam run faster
(01-08-2009)
Viet Nam and other ASEAN countries are on the way to economic recovery. Tom Cannon, professor of Strategic Development at the University of Liverpool Management School, spoke at a recent briefing.
The Asian Development Bank reported that East Asia economies could see a V-shaped recovery. That means they have reached the bottom and will be on the way to recovery next year. What do you think?
I agree that Asian economies, especially Southeast Asian ones, have reached the bottom and could show real growth in the next 12 months. We can see that China and India have shown signs of growth.
I believe September and October will see a further drop in European countries and no growth in North America and Europe for two or three years.
Evidence of the Viet Nam recovery is threefold. First the banks did not have the credit problems that dogged the banks in North America and Europe.
Second, the quality of the Vietnamese labour force is attracting investment and businesses, not just from the west but also from other parts of Asia, as you can see on the way from the airport
Third, the Government aid measures, as I regularly read, are focused quite rightly on four elements: renovation, enterprise, sustainability and knowledge development.
ASEAN countries are export economies which rely a great deal on North American and European economies. It will take another two to three years for these countries to recover. A report from the Ministry of Industry and Trade says that Viet Nam’s exports fell by 13 per cent year-on-year. These factors don’t seem to support the growth prediction?
It is true that Viet Nam is an export country. Therefore a reduction in consumption in the USA has caused a decline in exports from Viet Nam.
But the truth is that people in the US and Europe will be price conscious and they will looking for the most secure supply.
This will benefit countries like Viet Nam if they Vietnamese use their skills properly and compete effectively and more aggressively against other Asian countries and those in Eastern Europe. I believe Viet Nam has the assets to do this.
It will require Viet Nam to get along more, move further downstream with the normal export and services. For example, the food industry, it will require further changes but I believe VN has the oportunity to capitalise on these changes.
What is your messages to the Vietnamese leaders?
The recession will come to an end. The important thing is to invest in the future, not to believe the recession will go on forever. Therefore the Government has to realise that they should invest more in entrepreneurship, knowledge, universities and cities and the people will decide which country comes out on top in the revolution.
If we look at Southeast Asia, for example, the great competition will be between cities of Singapore, Hong Kong, Manila, Bang-kok, Hanoi and HCM City.
They will move further and faster. This is the world that, the young and the talented are in. That is the world from which the new revolution will emerge.
What should we do to benefit from the crisis?
The first thing I would suggest is innovation in the food industry. Food exports and food profits in the USA and Europe are being driven by innovation, new ways of presenting food.
Second, you have to invest in training and universities to produce graduates who will become entrepreneurs and innovators and create businesses.
The bank and the Government must support these young entrepreneurs to build new businesses that can grow and create prosperity and jobs. There will be more women creating businesses. This is the big factor in European economies.
You just mentioned Ha Noi and HCM City as keys to the Viet Nam economy. Could you please be more specific on investment policies that the Government should do to turn them into leaders of the economy?
In the race of cities, Ha Noi and HCM City have more advantages as they are less polluted and they are more beautiful than many other cities in the region.
Singapore and Hong Kong have many advantages particularly in terms of universities, tourism, trade and industry.
If you think of the race, I can see Ha Noi and HCM City have all the same advantages of other leading cities, such as Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok in terms of economics and culture. This means that Ha Noi and HCM City must be cleverer than their richer competitors.
What is your assessment of Vietnamese labour force?
The Vietnamese labour force is highly disciplined and works hard but you still need more graduates.
I hope the relationship between my university and other universities in Viet Nam and all over the world will become stronger. Now, not only businesses have to compete but also universities.— VNS
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